The importance of regional scenarios for low carbon transitions: the case of Wales

This paper examines the complexities of modelling a regional energy system in the context of Wales, and in the process, examines the role of regions in low carbon transitions. Despite a wealth of studies at national level, it can be challenging to derive insights into the regional potential of different technologies and transition pathways. The Welsh Government has set ambitious energy policy targets; viewed against the background of limited devolved powers – decisions on large-scale power generation lie with central UK Government – and an integrated power network in which Wales is a net power exporter, these present an interesting modelling problem. We discuss the need for ‘regional’ scale integrated energy modelling assessments, to improve the evidence base on the contributions of different technologies against the existing infrastructure and potential. We also discuss the need for appropriate indicators based on region-specific data in order to inform progress against policy goals.