Decoupling Or Integration? Investigating The Impact of International Market Dynamics on UK Natural Gas Prices

The United Kingdom faces critical challenges due to escalating energy costs, primarily driven by global market volatility, geopolitical tensions, and a sustained decline in domestic natural gas production from the North Sea (Dodds and McDowall, 2013). These issues have significantly exacerbated energy poverty, with over 20% of households struggling to afford energy bills in 2023, placing additional strain on low-income and vulnerable groups (Dodds and McDowall, 2013; Burlinson et al., 2024). This growing affordability crisis has highlighted the urgent need for structural reforms in energy pricing and regulatory mechanisms.